Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East
3 April 2012
Center for Strategic and International Studies - March 29, 2012
The Burke Chair has developed a detailed estimate of energy risks in the Middle East and North Africa, drawing heavily on the analyses of the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the US Department of Energy. The analysis is entitled Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East and is available on the CSIS web site at: https://csis.org/files/publication/120329_MENA_Threat_Brief.pdf
The analysis is divided into several main sections:
- Section One focuses on demand issues and their impact on global and regional demand for liquid fuels, impact on supply, price issues, and the special conditions affecting US demand for energy imports. It indicates that growth in Asian demand for MENA oil and gas exports will be high through 2035 (the cutoff date for projections), creating a “demand vulnerability” in periods of moderate to high economic growth that will keep prices high and stimulate major increases in production. It also shows that US political posturing about energy independence is just that – dishonest political opportunism that does not reflect the total different results of US government modeling and analysis. (The text describing current trends is adapted from the EIA analysis from which given graphs and trend estimates are taken.)
- Section Two covers North Africa. It indicates that the projected growth in Algerian and Libyan supply will be limited by global standards, but be of importance to Europe. It also indicates that Algeria and Libya are moderate risk countries because of the political uncertainties in each state and their uncertain ability to attract sustained energy investment over time. (The text describing current gas and oil trends is adapted from the EIA analysis from which given graphs and trend estimates are taken. The summary risk lists are the author’s judgments).